Week 14 was played out very similarly to how this season has to this point. The Chiefs won in another Chiefs-type manner and continued to be the toughest team to power rate. They had the Chargers in a pickle at half up 13-0, but again could not close the cover. While newcomer D.J. Humphries improved the offensive line, he looked very much like a player who had not played in a year. Running back Isiah Pacheco gained the majority of the carries, which improved the run game’s efficiency, but the Chiefs still need to plug holes to reach their ceiling. It is in there, but the question is when or if it bubbles up.
The bubble has already risen on the Bills, who despite the loss to the Rams, are the highest-rated team. They expect to get two more players back this week on the offensive side of the ball, which will continue to boost their rating. Will they be able to go into Kansas City in the playoffs and win? We will see, but when it comes to regular-season betting, they are the best team. This week’s game versus Detroit will simply be there to set the markets bar.
Now let’s look at the biggest two power rankings adjustments that I made after the Week 14 games:
Move them up: Seattle Seahawks
I may be over of my skis here, but the Seahawks continue to rise up my board even though I am ahead of the market on them. Since the bye, this defense has been the exact unit everyone pictured when Mike Macdonald got hired as head coach. It took some time to get to this point, but Seattle’s defense has emerged as one of the better units in the league.
They still have issues on offense — including a need to improve in the red zone — that hinder their chances to make a deep run in the playoffs. However, they are dogs of three points for the second week in a row. This week is more deserving than last, but I am very intrigued to see if they can answer the call.
Move them down: Cleveland Browns
I did not have any major downgrades this week, but I wanted to highlight the Browns. I enjoy Jameis Winston as much as, if not more than, most people. He is wildly entertaining to watch, but he creates massive amounts of variance in games. We saw this magnified in the last two weeks with a rush of interceptions and touchdowns. He is clearly better than Deshaun Watson, but the upgrade needs to be kept in check.
Let’s get this in before the midweek move pushes it back out to -3.5
Week 15 NFL Best Bet: Jets -3
The bubble has already risen on the Bills, who despite the loss to the Rams, are the highest-rated team. They expect to get two more players back this week on the offensive side of the ball, which will continue to boost their rating. Will they be able to go into Kansas City in the playoffs and win? We will see, but when it comes to regular-season betting, they are the best team. This week’s game versus Detroit will simply be there to set the markets bar.
Now let’s look at the biggest two power rankings adjustments that I made after the Week 14 games:
Move them up: Seattle Seahawks
I may be over of my skis here, but the Seahawks continue to rise up my board even though I am ahead of the market on them. Since the bye, this defense has been the exact unit everyone pictured when Mike Macdonald got hired as head coach. It took some time to get to this point, but Seattle’s defense has emerged as one of the better units in the league.
They still have issues on offense — including a need to improve in the red zone — that hinder their chances to make a deep run in the playoffs. However, they are dogs of three points for the second week in a row. This week is more deserving than last, but I am very intrigued to see if they can answer the call.
Move them down: Cleveland Browns
I did not have any major downgrades this week, but I wanted to highlight the Browns. I enjoy Jameis Winston as much as, if not more than, most people. He is wildly entertaining to watch, but he creates massive amounts of variance in games. We saw this magnified in the last two weeks with a rush of interceptions and touchdowns. He is clearly better than Deshaun Watson, but the upgrade needs to be kept in check.
Early Week 15 NFL Best Bet:
One trend that has been consistent this season is money on the Jets, no matter how low they have gotten, once limits go up, money has come in. This is the first week in a while that I actually like them. The Jets head into Jacksonville to take on a walking-dead head coach and a team with a very bad secondary. It’s a perfect setup for Aaron Rodgers and company to move the football and get this win.Let’s get this in before the midweek move pushes it back out to -3.5
Week 15 NFL Best Bet: Jets -3
